Nations hostile to America, primarily Russia and China, are currently doubling down on their efforts to influence the outcome of the upcoming US elections. So far, their efforts appear to be directed at preventing Donald Trump from winning a second term as president, possibly fearing a Republican victory could herald the US taking a tougher stance on international affairs.
According to an extensive nine-page Microsoft threat intelligence report: “Foreign malign influence concerning the 2024 US election started off slowly but has steadily picked up pace over the last six months due initially to Russian operations, but more recently from Iranian activity.”
Microsoft quotes examples, including a recently created Iran-run covert news site, Nio Thinker, that began publishing in late October 2023. Although the site initially focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict, it has increasingly shifted to the US elections in recent months. Its content appears to cater to liberal audiences and includes sarcastic, long-winded articles insulting Trump, including calling him an “opioid-pilled elephant in the MAGA china shop” and a “raving mad litigious.”
Distinctive video forgeries and fake scandals
The most impactful Russian threat actor, Storm-1516, pivoted in late April from Ukraine-focused operations to targeting the US election with distinctive video forgeries. Storm-1516 has since attempted to drive headlines with fake scandals. These include claiming that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) directed a Ukrainian troll farm to disrupt the upcoming US election, that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) wiretapped former US President Donald Trump’s residence, and that Ukrainian soldiers burned an effigy of Trump. Microsoft anticipates that the US election will remain Storm-1516’s top priority as November approaches.
The most prolific Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-linked threat actor, Taizi Flood (also known as Spamouflage), is expanding to new platforms and employing new techniques. These include leveraging hundreds of accounts to stoke outrage around pro-Palestinian protests at US universities. Taizi Flood’s tactics include posing as students involved in the protests, reacting in real-time as students clashed with law enforcement across campuses, and supplying directions to demonstration locations.
Foreign threat actors are also developing and streamlining their technical cyber skills as the November election approaches. Weaponized artificial intelligence (AI), for example, is proving less of the ticking time bomb many feared and more of a damp squib in the hands of hostile foreign powers.
“We’ve seen nearly all [threat] actors seek to incorporate AI content in their operations, but more recently, many actors have pivoted back to techniques that have proven effective in the past—simple digital manipulations, mischaracterization of content, and use of trusted labels or logos atop false information,” says Microsoft.
