Russia is believed to be planning widespread cyber-attacks on the West in part retaliation for Ukraine’s cyber-attack, which recently crippled Russia’s financial services.
“In retaliation to NATO support for Ukraine, cyberwarfare coinciding with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely include focused state-level attacks against Western critical and military sectors launched by Moscow’s hacker groups,” says Craig Watt, a consultant specializing in strategic and geopolitical intelligence at cybersecurity firm Quorum Cyber.
Watt believes that the next 12 months will be critical for the NATO alliance to fend off Russian cyber aggression with elections in the US, a possible late summer Russian offensive looming, and certain European states attempting to block support for Ukraine. He adds that this is also likely to result in disruptive efforts that will not only affect government and defense industries but also spill over into the Western private sector and its supply chains.
According to Yuval Wollman, President of Cyberproof, a UST Company: “Cyberwarfare is typically linked to kinetic, physical conflict – the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East and Asia, and other geopolitical events are coupled with cyberwarfare as a means to increase friction. In today’s landscape, much of cyberwarfare that is carried out is typically connected directly to each conflict.”
“Digital fronts have become platforms for various forms of aggression, including propaganda and operational sabotage, carried out by diverse groups ranging from state-backed entities to independent hackers,” added Wollman.
The Ukraine conflict may already be escalating the cyber conflict between Russia and the US. Since the start of the conflict, cyber-attacks on the West have been growing fast in numbers and in ferocity.
According to Alexandra Forsyth, a cybersecurity consultant and founder of retail and technology platform AF’s Retail Guide: “The long-standing conflict between Russia and Ukraine could be argued as a contributing factor to increased cyber-attacks against Western organisations across critical industries including financial services, healthcare, and utilities and education. DDoS in particular, a type of attack vector used to cause short-term impacts against digital infrastructure such as websites, can disrupt core operations and services.”
US elections to trigger concerted cyber-attacks
But it is the US elections that are expected to be the prime catalyst for Russia to ruthlessly deploy new hacking techniques developed over the last 18 months, including artificial intelligence (AI) and the kind of deepfake videos now being displayed at the DEF CON hacking conference in Las Vegas (August 12-13).
“Moscow is likely contemplating how 2024 democratic election outcomes could impact Western support to Ukraine with Russia’s influence actors likely adapting to enhance these efforts using new technologies, such as generative AI and deepfakes, to improve their capabilities and reach into Western audiences,” says Watt.
According to cybersecurity consultant Andrew Plato, founder of Zenaciti and author of The Founder’s User Manual: “An all-out cyberwar would be difficult to sustain. What we see more of are isolated hit-and-run style attacks, designed to create distractions or erode confidence. It is much easier to wage disinformation and misinformation campaigns rather than direct attacks.”
Ukraine not the only conflict fuelling cyber-attacks
Nor is the war taking place in Ukraine the only geopolitical conflict fuelling cyber-attacks on the West. Conflict in the Middle East, China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Seas, and North Korea’s saber rattling are all contributing to the growing global cyber conflict.
“As the Israel-Hamas conflict has drawn out, ‘hybrid warfare’ will likely materialize, blending kinetic and cyber operations to extend the battlefield beyond traditional geographic lines to include civilian technologies, allies, and affiliates… resulting in extensive chaos and collateral damage within the Middle East region as well as further afield,” says Watt.
According to Josh Amishav, founder and CEO of cybersecurity company Breachsense: “Given the current geopolitical tensions, the likelihood of crippling cyberattacks is definitely a significant concern. Tactics successfully used in other conflicts, like those in Ukraine or the Middle East, are likely to be reused to disrupt financial services and critical infrastructure in Western countries.”
